REGRESSION TOWARD THE MEAN

A few posts back, I mentioned the phrase 'regression to the mean', a term taken from statistics that suggests in the long run, things seem to average out.

The originator of the concept was Francis Galton, a first cousin of Charles Darwin. Galton noticed that in the general population, the normal or Bell curve seems to govern the distribution of physical traits like height, weight, even the size of brains. 

In the book The Drunkard's Walk, the author gives a wonderful example to explain Galton's observations..

"Galton realized that processes that did not exhibit regression toward the mean would eventually go out of control. For example, suppose the sons of tall fathers would on average be as tall as their fathers. Since heights vary, some sons would be taller. Now imagine the next generation, and suppose the sons of the taller sons, grandsons of the original men, were also on average as tall as their fathers. Some of them, too, would have to be taller than their fathers. In this way, as generation followed generation, the tallest humans would even be taller. Because of regression toward the mean, that does not happen. The same can be said of intelligence, artistic talent, or the ability to hit a golf ball. And so very tall parents should not expect their children to be as tall, very brilliants parents should not expect their children to be as brilliant, and Picassos and Tiger Woodses of this world should not expect their children to match their accomplishments. On the other hand, very short parents can expect taller offspring, and those of us who are not brilliant or can't paint have reasonable hope that our deficiencies will be improved upon in the next generation."

This passage explains so well why we aren't a race of twelve foot giants or why Bobby Orr's kids never had any inclination to learn how to skate.

Galton also mistakenly hypothesized that human character is determined by heredity and obeys the normal distribution in some manner. Regrettably, that idea was seized on by the Nazis some 60 years later as the basis for their distorted belief in eugenics. Nowadays, thankfully most would agree that persistence usually trumps inborn talent.

That aside, I think that we have tacitly allowed the principle of regression toward the mean to infiltrate our way of life. That is, we sometimes let mediocrity be our guiding principle. After all, being average can be so comfortable, especially during a pandemic.

This week, my intent is to avoid the pull of regressing toward the mean by doing a few positive things that hopefully will plunk me down at least one or two standard deviations right of center on that behavioral Bell curve.